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1 - 12 de 12 resultados para “philip e tetlock”
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  • Superforecasting

    The Art and Science of Prediction

    de Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner ...
    NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST“The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street JournalEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people ... Leer más

    $8.99 USD

  • HBR's 10 Must Reads on Managing Risk (with bonus article "Managing 21st-Century Political Risk" by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart)

    de Harvard Business Review, Robert S. Kaplan, Condoleezza Rice, Philip E. Tetlock, Paul J. H. Schoemaker ...
    Series series HBR's 10 Must Reads
    Is your business playing it safe—or taking the right risks?If you read nothing else on managing risk, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help your company make smart decisions and thrive, even when the future is unclear.This book will inspire you to:Avoid the most common errors in risk ... Leer más

    $17.99 USD o gratis con Kobo Plus

  • Expert Political Judgment

    How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition

    de Philip E. Tetlock ...
    Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions ... Leer más

    $20.19 USD

  • Comment être visionnaire

    de Dan Gardner, Philip E. Tetlock ...
    Traducido por François Tharaud ...
    " Les techniques et les façons de penser exposées dans ce livre sont précieuses pour quiconque s'intéresse à ce que l'avenir nous réserve. En d'autres termes, pour tout le monde. " The EconomistTout le monde aimerait connaître l'avenir pour prendre les bonnes décisions politiques, économiques, ou pour lancer un nouveau produit.Malheureusement, nous avons tendance à être de piètres prévisionnistes. ... Leer más

    $19.99 USD

  • Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

    Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives

    Edición de Philip E. Tetlock, Aaron Belkin ...
    Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett ... Leer más

    $58.99 USD

  • Superforecasting – Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose

    de Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner ...
    Traducido por Jürgen Neubauer ...
    Der Psychologe und Politikwissenschaftler Philip Tetlock gibt in seinem leichtverständlichen Wissenschafts-Sachbuch ›Superforecasting. Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose‹ eine Anleitung für treffsichere Prognosen in einer unsicheren Zeit.»Superforecaster« sind Menschen, denen erstaunlich gute Vorhersagen in allen Bereichen gelingen – bessere als den Experten. Was macht sie so besonders? In einem ... Leer más

    $15.99 USD o gratis con Kobo Plus

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  • Humor, Seriously

    Why Humor Is a Secret Weapon in Business and Life (And how anyone can harness it. Even you.)

    de Jennifer Aaker, Naomi Bagdonas ...
    WALL STREET JOURNAL, LOS ANGELES TIMES, AND USA TODAY BESTSELLER • Anyone—even you!—can learn how to harness the power of humor in business (and life), based on the popular class at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business.Don’t miss the authors’ TED Talk, “Why great leaders take humor seriously,” online now.“The ultimate guide to using the magical power of funny as a tool for leadership and a force ... Leer más

    $9.99 USD

    Disponible también en: Audiolibro

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  • The Scout Mindset

    Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't

    de Julia Galef ...
    "...an engaging and enlightening account from which we all can benefit."—The Wall Street JournalA better way to combat knee-jerk biases and make smarter decisions, from Julia Galef, the acclaimed expert on rational decision-making.When it comes to what we believe, humans see what they want to see. In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a "soldier" mindset. From tribalism and wishful ... Leer más

    $9.99 USD

    Disponible también en: Audiolibro

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  • How to Change

    The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be

    de Katy Milkman ...
    Wall Street Journal bestseller“A welcome revelation.” --The Financial TimesAward-winning Wharton Professor and Choiceology podcast host Katy Milkman has devoted her career to the study of behavior change. In this ground-breaking book, Milkman reveals a proven path that can take you from where you are to where you want to be, with a foreword from psychologist Angela Duckworth, the best-selling ... Leer más

    $9.99 USD

    Disponible también en: Audiolibro

    Disponible también en: Audiolibro

  • The Self-Driven Child

    The Science and Sense of Giving Your Kids More Control Over Their Lives

    de William Stixrud PhD, Ned Johnson ...
    **“Instead of trusting kids with choices . . . many parents insist on micromanaging everything from homework to friendships. For these parents, Stixrud and Johnson have a simple message: Stop.” —NPR“This humane, thoughtful book turns the latest brain science into valuable practical advice for parents.” —Paul Tough, New York Times bestselling author of How Children Succeed**A few years ago, Bill ... Leer más

    $8.99 USD

    Disponible también en: Audiolibro

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  • The Signal and the Noise

    Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

    de Nate Silver ...
    NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation’s foremost political forecaster—updated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and pollingOne of The Wall Street Journal’s Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year“Could turn out to be one of the more ... Leer más

    Antes $8.99 USD Ahora $7.99 USD

    Disponible también en: Audiolibro

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  • How Not to Be Wrong

    The Power of Mathematical Thinking

    de Jordan Ellenberg ...
    **“Witty, compelling, and just plain fun to read . . ." —Evelyn Lamb, Scientific AmericanThe Freakonomics of math—a math-world superstar unveils the hidden beauty and logic of the world and puts its power in our hands**The math we learn in school can seem like a dull set of rules, laid down by the ancients and not to be questioned. In How Not to Be Wrong, Jordan Ellenberg shows us how terribly ... Leer más

    $8.99 USD

    Disponible también en: Audiolibro

    Disponible también en: Audiolibro